Of COVID 19 Herd Immunity, Vaccines, Rogan and Oliver…
The vaccines are here. We should be getting them.
I recently read about Joe Rogan and John Oliver’s comments on COVID 19. I find both of them to be wildly entertaining and insightful in their respective ways. On this topic, I think they’re both right and maybe both a little wrong.
I am a pretty simple person and I’d like to break down my simplistic understanding of COVID 19 herd immunity and vaccines, which I gleaned from reading the below linked articles before writing this. In fact, reading all or most of those articles will be a lot better than reading this article. But maybe this summary will be helpful to other laypeople?
It now seems that herd immunity is unlikely or impossible in the near term. Whether your estimate is that a 70% or a 90% vaccination rate of the population is needed, it is unrealistic to think the U.S. population will not be exposed to the vast majority of the world that has a far lower vaccination rate.
Joe Rogan was, in a sense, correct in that (if I’m interpreting his comments correctly) if you’re a young, healthy and fit person, the risks of a vaccine (however minimal) may seem to outweigh your risks of a severe COVID 19 case. Perhaps, depending on the vaccine and person.
Despite that, why is mass vaccination important?
1- It seems clear that a significant factor in the spread of COVID 19 is people not currently exhibiting symptoms spreading it. Whether these people are defined as pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic may vary from study to study.
2- When more people receive a vaccine, fewer people will be infected. When the number of infections decreases, it slows the evolution of the virus because there will be fewer iterations of mutations. Therefore, the likelihood of a mutation producing a more deadly and/or infectious strain is reduced. This first point was raised by John Oliver and I think it gets at what Joe Rogan was saying: It’s not necessarily in the self interest of a young, healthy and fit person to get a vaccine. In fact, it is in their longterm interest because the virus will likely be here a while and fewer people getting it, means a reduced chance it gets worse, perhaps if they become at risk (for ex, age 60+).
3- Even when there is a variant, as with the Influenza vaccine, it currently appears likely that a vaccine will at least reduce the severity of the COVID 19 strain that an individual contracts.
4- While it may be true that enough of a population contracting COVID 19 may also lead to herd immunity, the path to that kind of herd immunity could eventually be prone to viral mutations that lead to a more deadly or infectious COVID strain (not to mention a lot of death among at risk and elderly populations, which we are sadly now seeing repeated in much of the world).
5- Faster and more widespread vaccinations around the world can more quickly reduce the likelihood of more deadly and infectious strains.
6- At the very least, as Joe Rogan noted, the elderly and at-risk should be vaccinated around the world as fast and completely as possible.
7- What is less clear is how often a vaccine will be necessary. How long will a vaccine protect you. How effective will it be against the inevitable new strains that will come up? Thankfully, COVID 19 does not seem to evolve as quickly as Influenza.
8- Eventually the world may need new styles of vaccines, to protect against new strains. Perhaps, new vaccines in development offer hope (see Emergex, Osivax, Etherna and maybe others).
With what we know now, it seems clear that the more of the global population is vaccinated, the better off we will all be. If you are lucky enough to have more than one vaccine available to you, it’s advisable to research which one might be best for you.
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Articles referenced before writing this article:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/vaccine-benefits.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-56948665
John Oliver says Joe Rogan is a ‘f***ing moron’ for Covid vaccine comments | The Independent
Can Covid-19 Vaccines Keep up with an Evolving Virus?
Vaccines should end the pandemic, despite the variants, say experts — Harvard Gazette
Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe — The New York Times
Economists Disagree Over How Much Covid-19 ‘Herd Immunity’ Needed for Recovery — WSJ
Do the math: Vaccines alone won’t get us out of this pandemic- STAT
12 Most Common Questions About Covid Mutations And Vaccines
Misconceptions about Seasonal Flu and Flu Vaccines | CDC
Vaccine Effectiveness: How Well Do the Flu Vaccines Work? | CDC
